Most business owners check in on sales results after the fact. But if you’re only reviewing performance, not projecting it, you’re driving blind. Every quarter, you should sit down with your sales team and ask two questions:
- What do you expect total sales to be?
- What will the average sale price be?
This simple habit will sharpen your team’s focus, expose potential problems early, and give you real leverage to grow.
Why These Two Numbers Matter
These aren’t just arbitrary data points. Total projected sales tell you how much business your team expects to close. The average sale price reveals how much value they expect to create per deal.
Together, these numbers create a clear snapshot of expected performance. And more importantly, they force your team to think ahead—deliberately.
Let’s break that down. When salespeople set forward-looking expectations, they:
- Revisit their pipeline to see what’s real and what’s wishful
- Test their assumptions around close rates and timelines
- Flag deals that might slip or stall
- Catch issues before they turn into missed quotas
Here’s a quick story: A coach I know in Boise works with a company that sells B2B software. When he started, the sales team didn’t forecast—they just tracked closed deals. Once they started quarterly projections, things changed. Reps began preparing earlier, qualifying leads better, and spotting pipeline gaps 30–60 days ahead. Revenue increased 18% the next year—not because their guesses were perfect, but because the act of projecting made them more focused and intentional.
It’s Not About Being Right
Some leaders hesitate to ask for projections because they don’t want to play the “guessing game.” But you’re not asking for perfect forecasts. You’re asking your team to own their pipeline and think strategically.
Projections won’t always be accurate. That’s not the point. The real value is in:
- Getting early signals on where revenue may land
- Spotting weak months before they arrive
- Starting conversations about price erosion or deal volume
If a salesperson projects $150,000 this quarter and ends at $115,000, that tells you something valuable—not just that they missed, but how they think about their sales process.
And when someone consistently overshoots or undershoots, it gives you a chance to coach with clarity.
How to Run the Meeting
You don’t need a complex dashboard or forecasting software to do this. Here’s how to make it work:
- Meet early in the quarter. Ideally, within the first week. Ask each rep (or yourself, if you’re the one selling) to write down their projected total sales and average sale price.
- Ask them to explain. What deals are they counting on? What assumptions are they making? Where’s the risk?
- Document it. Keep a simple record—spreadsheet, CRM note, or shared doc. The goal is to track how their thinking lines up with actual results over time.
- Revisit it mid-quarter. A five-minute check-in around Week 6 helps course-correct before it’s too late.
When done consistently, this becomes a rhythm that brings focus, not friction.
What You’ll Learn Over Time
The longer you do this, the more valuable it becomes. You’ll start to notice patterns in how your team thinks, how your sales cycle behaves, and where growth is possible.
Here’s what quarterly projections reveal over time:
- Who consistently hits targets—and why. Some reps think conservatively but outperform. Others are too optimistic and fall short. You’ll learn whose gut instincts align with reality.
- Where your deals get stuck. If multiple reps expect strong quarters but repeatedly miss, that’s a clue: deals may be stalling in the same part of the funnel.
- How pricing influences volume. If projected average sale prices begin to shrink, you may be discounting too much—or chasing the wrong type of customer.
- What’s happening in the market. When projections shift across the team, it’s often a signal that buyer behavior is changing.
A retail business we advised in Washington State started tracking these two metrics quarterly. At first, the owner thought it was just “extra math.” But within two quarters, he saw that reps who sold accessories with big-ticket items consistently had higher average sale prices and better margins. That insight led him to change the commission structure—and average transaction value rose 22%.
Use Projections to Make Better Decisions
Once you have a habit of collecting these projections, you can begin using them to make smart, proactive business decisions:
- Adjust Staffing Needs: If Q2 projections show a dip in total sales across the team, you have options: reassign leads, pull forward campaigns, or bring in temporary support. Likewise, a projected spike may mean it’s time to hire or increase capacity.
- Refine Marketing Plans: Marketing and sales need to stay in sync. If your sales team expects a drop in deal volume but your marketing is focused on lead generation, you may be out of alignment. Use projections to guide campaign timing and messaging.
- Spot Pricing Opportunities: Tracking average sale price over time shows how much customers are willing to spend. If that number trends up, test price increases. If it drops, examine whether reps are discounting or bundling too aggressively.
- Coach with Precision: Vague coaching kills results. When reps provide projections, it opens the door to real conversations:
- “Why do you expect fewer deals this quarter?”
- “What makes you confident in a higher average sale price?”
- “What’s changed since last quarter?”
These are the kinds of discussions that move a team forward—not generic performance reviews.
When Forecasting Is New, Hard, or Off Track
Some sales teams are brand new. Others miss the mark. Some resist the process altogether. Here’s how to handle all three:
- If your team has no baseline: Don’t aim for precision. Aim for structure. New reps should use average deal sizes and close rates from similar teammates. New teams should treat the first quarter as a baseline experiment. Don’t attach pressure—just observe their thinking. Focus on assumptions, not outcomes.
- If projections are way off: Don’t blame. Use the miss to improve. Ask: Was the pipeline padded? Were the assumptions faulty? Are deals stalling in one area? Help your team break down the gap and coach toward better judgment next time.
- If your team resists forecasting: Start with trust. Explain that projections aren’t about control—they’re about visibility and growth. Clarify that no one expects perfect accuracy. The point is to think ahead and take ownership of outcomes. Once the habit sticks, accuracy and confidence improve.
And if you’re facing resistance to doing projections at all, it’s likely a trust issue. Explain to your team that this isn’t about micromanagement—it’s about visibility. Make it clear that this habit exists to help the business and each individual seller improve. Emphasize that projections don’t have to be perfect, just thoughtful. Over time, the accuracy will come—and with it, better results and more confidence.
Tailor Projections to Your Sales Model
Not all sales teams are built the same. If you sell across multiple product lines, serve different customer tiers, or use multiple channels, your projections should reflect that reality.
Here’s how to adapt:
- Multi-product teams: Break projections out by product line if the pricing, deal size, or sales cycle differs significantly.
- Multi-channel sales: Ask for separate projections by source—e.g., inbound vs. outbound, partners vs. direct sales.
- Account managers: Include projections for both new sales and expansion or renewals.
The more specific you are, the more actionable your insights become. One firm in Boise started tracking average sale price separately for services and software. Within two quarters, they found bundling was diluting margins. They corrected course—and profitability improved.
Don’t Skip It—Even If You’re Small
This isn’t just for large sales teams. Even if you’re a solo operator or leading a two-person team, quarterly projections still matter. They make you pause, reflect, and build the discipline of thinking ahead.
If you’re the one selling, take ten minutes at the start of each quarter to ask yourself:
- What’s the total revenue I expect to bring in?
- What’s my expected average sale price?
- What are the 3-5 deals or customer types I’m counting on?
Write it down. Then check in on Week 6. That habit alone can push you to refine your pipeline, avoid distractions, and close with more focus.
A small design agency in Colorado started doing this every quarter, even though the owner did most of the selling. It helped her realize that projects under $5,000 drained too much time relative to value. That insight led her to increase her minimum project size—and double her revenue within 18 months.
Conclusion
Quarterly sales projections aren’t just a reporting tool—they’re a leadership habit. When you ask your team to project total sales and average sale price, you’re training them to think ahead, manage risk, and take ownership. Even if the numbers aren’t perfect, the clarity and focus this creates will help you lead with confidence.
Start now: schedule your next sales projection meeting before the quarter ends. Even a short conversation around total sales and average sale price can change how your team plans, prioritizes, and performs.
Not sure if you're the bottleneck? Find out in 2 minutes →
